• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer
Live the Flagstaff Life

Live the Flagstaff Life

Flagstaff Lifestyle and Real Estate

  • Homepage
  • Blog
  • Flagstaff Events
  • Get Started
    • Buyers
    • Request a Buyer’s Guide
    • Request a Seller’s Guide
    • Instant Home Value
  • Vacation Rentals
  • About Me
    • An Interview With Katannya
    • Contact
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms and Conditions

The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You

February 23, 2021 by Katannya Hartwell Leave a Comment

Share
Email
Share
Pin
Tweet

We’re currently experiencing historically low mortgage rates. Over the last fifty years, the average on a Freddie Mac 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been 7.76%. Today, that rate is 2.81%. Flocks of homebuyers have been taking advantage of these remarkably low rates over the last twelve months. However, there’s no guarantee rates will remain this low much longer.

Whenever we try to forecast mortgage rates, we should consider the advice of Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:

“You know, the fallacy of economic forecasting is don’t ever try and forecast interest rates and/or, more specifically, if you’re a real estate economist mortgage rates, because you will always invariably be wrong.”

Many things impact mortgage rates. The economy, inflation, and Fed policy, just to name a few. That makes forecasting rates difficult. However, there’s one metric that has held up over the last fifty years – the relationship between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury rate. Here’s a graph detailing this relationship since Freddie Mac started keeping mortgage rate records in 1972:The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You | Simplifying The MarketThere’s no denying the close relationship between the two. Over the last five decades, there’s been an average 1.7-point spread between these two rates. It’s this long-term relationship that has some forecasters projecting an increase in mortgage rates as we move throughout the year. This is based on the recent surge in the 10-year treasury rate shown here:The Reason Mortgage Rates Are Projected to Increase and What It Means for You | Simplifying The MarketThe spread between the two is now 1.53, indicating mortgage rates could rise. Actually, a bump-up in rate has already begun. As Joel Kan, Associate VP of Economic Forecasting for the Mortgage Bankers Association, reveals:

“Expectations of faster economic growth and inflation continue to push Treasury yields & mortgage rates higher. Since hitting a survey low in December, the 30-year fixed rate has slowly risen, & last week climbed to its highest level since Nov 2020.”

How high might they go in 2021?

No one knows for sure. Sam Khater, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac, recently suggested:

“While there are multiple temporary factors driving up rates, the underlying economic fundamentals point to rates remaining in the low 3% range for the year.”

What does this mean for you?

Whether you’re a first-time buyer or you’ve purchased a home before, even an increase of half a point in mortgage rate (2.81 to 3.31%) makes a big difference. On a $300,000 mortgage, that difference (including principal and interest) is $82 a month, $984 a year, or a total of $29,520 over the life of the home loan.

Bottom Line

Based on the 50-year symbiotic relationship between treasury rates and mortgage rates, it appears mortgage rates could be headed up this year. It may make sense to buy now rather than wait.

Filed Under: Real Estate Tagged With: Flagstaff Az Realtor, Flagstaff Realtor, Real Estate in Flagstaff Arizona, Real Estate in Flagstaff Az

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Primary Sidebar

Stay Up To Date

Sign up to receive free market updates from Live the Flagstaff Life

Search

Footer

Katannya Hartwell
REALTOR®

Connect with me on:

  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • Twitter
  • YouTube
  • The Kingswood
  • Flagstaff Golf Communities

Copyright © 2023 · Agent Focused Pro by Winning Agent · Log in

Village Land Shoppe | Privacy Policy | Terms of Conditions